Its final long-term destination remains up in the air. Man-yi downgraded to tropical depression, continues arcing northeast away from Okinawa. 6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Tropical Storm Dolphin continues on a northeast trajectory, with Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track taking it southeast of the Tokyo area at mid-day Thursday. Nanmadol exits Sasebo area, continues up coast toward Iwakuni, Tokyo. More to follow. 14W is forecast to curve northeast on Thursday, picking up forward speed and hurtling toward central Honshu, between Shizuoka and Hamamatsu near Mount Fuji, weakening to 46-mph sustained winds as it goes on course for landfall late Thursday. 1:20 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Give disturbance 97W Invest credit for persistence. At midnight Saturday, 93W was 995 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base and 581 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
The current forecast track shows Dolphin headed toward landfall between Shizuoka and the Izu Peninsula southwest of Tokyo late Thursday.
Forecast ensembles agree on a track through or southeast of Tokyo. Yokosuka, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. If Dolphin stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to pass 110 miles southeast of Yokosuka, 131 southeast of Atsugi and Zama and 144 southeast of Yokota Air Base, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at storm's center.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center issues final warning on fading TD Peipah. 7 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Tropical Depression 12W spawned overnight Friday, and according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is forecast to curve just offshore of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area late Saturday into Sunday. This tracker shows the current view from our GOES East and GOES West satellites. At 3 a.m., 12W was 316 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving north-northwest at 16 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at center. JTWC issues final warning on Ewiniar; Signal 3 remains raised for Hong Kong; still eyeing disturbance near Philippines. JTWC reports a vast spread among model solutions long-term. 12:45 a.m. Monday, Sept. 21, Japan time: And just like that, the 14th numbered tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific's season has spun up well off the southern coast of Japan and east of Okinawa. Aere still meandering east of Hong Kong, forecast to die off as it heads southwest. Dolphin is just over a day old. Stay tuned. Yokosuka can expect winds increasing tonight, peaking at 40- to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at 8 a.m. Thursday, gradually diminishing into Friday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that Dolphin could remain quasi-stationary and dissipate southeast of Tokyo or gradually crawl north and decay as it moves. Dolphin is forecast to convert into a sub-tropical low in the next day or so, but JTWC and Yokosuka's weather forecast call for it to remain a storm-force system, a significant wind and rain event later in the week for the Kanto Plain. At midnight Thursday, 97W was 47 miles north-northwest of Iwo Jima and 690 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base, JTWC reported. Forecast winds for Yokosuka Naval Base have been dialed back as a result.
At 9 p.m., Dolphin was 720 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka and 455 miles east of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, crawling north-northeast at 5 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.
And if the current JTWC forecast holds, Dolphin would put Tokyo and Kanto Plain bases in its crosshairs for a possible Thursday afternoon rendevous.
Yokosuka's extended weather forecast calls for winds increasing Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gusts as high as 30 mph, and showers into Wednesday morning. Lekima makes its way inland, headed just west of Shanghai and continuing north toward the Gulf of Pohai in northeast China.
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC) provide official position, intensity and forecast tracks for tropical cyclones within their areas of resonsibility. Model-track guidance and forecast ensembles continue to stray all over the lot, with GFS depicting a track toward the Tokyo area and ECMWF more toward central Japan's Osaka Kansai region. Phone: 301-713-9604 Tembin downgraded to tropical storm; forecast track drifts south of Ho Chi Minh City. Model-track guidance and forecast ensembles shows similar.
7 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 19, Japan time: A tropical disturbance labeled 93W Invest has begun forming south of Japan.
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