Temperatures also range in the unpleasant range. The MJO is an area of active storms and convection (rising air) that travels from west to east along the equator. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) shifted considerably in the last month, and now points towards a rapid decline to ENSO-neutral status by early fall (Fig. Author: Emily Becker. Weak El Niño conditions mean these impacts may be less consistent than during strong El Niño.
Climate.gov figure from CPC data. This slight weakening of the typical El Niño signal is in part due to a reawakening Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the second half of April. However, there is a broad range of potential outcomes shown here, and we’re still within the spring predictability barrier, when forecast models have a tougher time making successful predictions, partly due to the tendency of ENSO to be in transition during the spring. NOAA El Niño Update: El Niño is Likely to Continue Through the Summer and Fall However, there is a broad range of potential outcomes shown here, and we’re still within the spring predictability barrier , when forecast models have a tougher time making successful predictions, partly due to the tendency of ENSO to be in transition during the spring. When the trade winds slow, they allow the surface waters to warm, and can sometimes kick off or enhance a downwelling Kelvin wave, a large area of warm water that slides from the west to the east under the surface.
Lines and paragraphs break automatically. So when the MJO is over the Indian Ocean, the trade winds in the west-central Pacific are stronger than average, because the inflow to the MJO reinforces them. More rain and clouds than average formed over the warmer waters of the central Pacific, less over Indonesia, and near-surface winds in the central Pacific slowed. Summary: El Niño conditions are still within the range of a weak event based on SST anomalies, but most forecasts and outlooks describe this event as over, or that it will be soon. After a couple of months of weaker-than-average trade winds (what we expect during El Niño conditions), they were near average overall during April. El Niño conditions were still evident across the tropical Pacific Ocean during April, as the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region averaged about 0.7°C warmer than the long-term average (via the ERSSTv5 database). Near-average conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that we have returned to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña is present). The amount of warmer-than-average water below the surface of the tropical Pacific also increased substantially in February, after dropping over the past few months. Thank you so very much for further educating me... Respectfully, Barry Goldberg. so. Places that were more (purple) or less (orange) cloudy than the 1981-2010 average during February 2019, based on satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation (heat). Pink areas show weaker-than-average trade winds, and green stronger. On July 11, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their El Niño advisory based on the SST anomalies, but trends in oceanic and atmospheric conditions led them to expect this event would transition to ENSO-neutral in the next few months. The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Tracking (lack of) Monsoon 2020, July 2020 SW Climate Podcast - The Monsoon's "Late" Start in Context, Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - August 2020, Southwest Climate Outlook August 2020 - Climate Summary, Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - July 2020.
El Niño conditions through the summer can affect the hurricane season, too—the Climate Prediction Center’s hurricane season outlook will be issued in May, so stay tuned! The swing towards ENSO-neutral was tied to the rapid dissipation of warmer waters in the ocean, and a return to mostly normal atmospheric conditions. As you may remember from February’s update, the atmosphere finally started showing signs of a response to the … They called for a 60-percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions to continue into Fall 2019. 80% chance to continue through the spring, North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME, not very powerful predictors of fall El Niño patterns. What do El Niño conditions through the spring portend for global weather patterns? Lastly, happy 5th birthday to the ENSO Blog! Both the Southern Oscillation Index and the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index were -1.4 during February. Arizona Board of Regents | Institute of the Environment | 1-2), at least until recently.
4). Good for tourist, bad for corn. While they use different specific locations, both indexes compare the atmospheric pressure in the far western Pacific to that in the east-central Pacific.
Author: Emily Becker.
The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors.
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