In Spanish, the capitalized term El Niño means "the boy". Developing countries that depend on their own agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are usually most affected. [12] Modern day research and reanalysis techniques have managed to find at least 26 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record.[13][14][15]. Originally, the term El Niño applied to an annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of Peru and Ecuador at about Christmas time. Our sister blog, Beyond the Data, has published two recent articles relating to El Nino's affect on the climate: about the recent streak of warmest months on record, and about El Nino's role in the 2015-16 US winter. Follow this page for updates and announcements bout the El Niño phenomenon of 2015-2016. El Niño reportedly takes place every 2 to 7 years and can last from months to a period of up to two years. Over the past decades, frequent El Niño events have been observed and pose a great threat to biodiversity. Furthermore, most countries experience short-run inflationary pressures following an El Niño shock, while global energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. El Niño’s effect on regional temperature is a little less distinct than its effect on precipitation patterns. ", "El Niño: What are the El Niño impacts in Canada? The world's largest fishery collapsed due to overfishing during the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction. [102] The effects during the months of February, March, and April may become critical along the west coast of South America, El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains large fish populations, which in turn sustain abundant sea birds, whose droppings support the fertilizer industry. In South America, southern Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil have received much more rain than their long-term December–February average, and the northern portion of the continent has been dry, as usually occurs this time of year during El Niño. [79] The atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean can also be drier and more stable during El Niño events, which can also inhibit tropical cyclone genesis and intensification. There are two models in this graph that are showing a return of El Niño. March 2016 El Niño update: Spring Forward, changes the circulation of the atmosphere all around the world, some of the factors going into the super warm November and December, followed six of the ten moderate and strong El Niños since 1950, RE: Question - Probabilistic ENSO Outlooks, RE: RE: Question - Probabilistic ENSO Outlooks, RE: RE: RE: Question - Probabilistic ENSO Outlooks, Cold tropical Atlantic, continuing El Nino, RE: Cold tropical Atlantic, continuing El Nino, odds of a step-up in global average temperature, RE: odds of a step-up in global average temperature, recent streak of warmest months on record. demonstrated the ability to predict the probability that precipitation will be below or above average with modest but statistically significant skill one, two and even three years into the future. Local winds cause nutrient-rich cold water to upwell along the South American coast. Nicely done, If LA Nina comes weak to mod I think. The next few months should give us a clearer picture. [4] The original phrase, El Niño de Navidad, arose centuries ago, when Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ. That said, there’s still a lot of extra heat in the tropical Pacific, and we expect El Niño’s impacts to continue around the world through the next few months. The two models are the NCEP-CFSv2 and NCAR-CCSM4. [53] The phenomenon is called Central Pacific (CP) El Niño,[52] "dateline" El Niño (because the anomaly arises near the International Date Line), or El Niño "Modoki" (Modoki is Japanese for "similar, but different"). You mention they use both initial conditions with a too cold tropical Atlantic. The ocean warming off South American coast is a prime example of an El Niño event. Oxfam said climate change was super-charging the effects of El Nino and despite a landmark global climate pact reached in Paris on the weekend, much needed to be done rapidly to cut emissions. The two models that show a return to El Niño happen to use the exact same data set for the initial conditions.
Since El Niño changes the circulation of the atmosphere all around the world, it essentially changes where we expect rain to fall by steering storms to different locations. Would it be correct or could it be useful? The heat content is the lowest it’s been in over a year, and since the subsurface heat feeds El Niño’s warm surface waters, this is another sign that the event is tapering off. (For more on observations, check out Tom’s excellent post.). [83] About half of El Niño events persist sufficiently into the spring months for the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool to become unusually large in summer. Afterwards the climate of the Pacific Ocean was dominated by a cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation, with three significant La Niña events occurring between 1998–2001, 2007–09 and 2010–12.
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